Bahrain @ 4 a.m.

Habits die hard. I just can’t sleep beyond 4 a.m. Indian Standard Time. Come what may, I have to get out of bed. Even if my biological clock malfunctions, Zack will act as my alarm by licking my face and jumping all over. Because it is time for its morning ablutions! Zack, by the way, is my one year old Lhasa Apso male – a gift to my daughter by her friends.

Be it Delhi, Muscat or Bahrain (where I am now on a short visit), the alarm went off at 4 a.m. IST! Considering Bahrain is two-and-a-half hours behind, I woke up at 1.30 a.m.! That’s the time the night life is coming to an end and the Central Manama cabbies are doing roaring business ferrying inebriated souls – nay, bloated tummies – of all nationalities. Lot of noise and honking of horns.

Got into my Bermudas and T-shirt and stepped out of Delmon International to peek at the chaotic scenario on the roads. Reminded me of my Bombay days in the 1980s. Even at 1.30 in the morning, the city used to be very active. I had taken a Victoria ride at that unearthly hour on the Diamond necklace part of Chowpatty. Even did a 1000 word feature ‘A night outside Churchgate’ for the now-defunct The Indian Post (1988)!

The janitor looked at me curiously and enquired “all well?”. I responded with a smile and did a short detour for 5 minutes before I felt it was mad to go for the one hour walk and returned to room.

Since I could not – and did not – get into the lap of Dame Sleep, began reading an article in Esquire, November 2007 issue on why one should not ignore reading Harry Potter series. It may be trash, but it is going to be the defining moment as today’s kids who devour HP get into the hotseats in government and corporate and begin talking HP as the reference point. If you and I have no clue as to the characters and plot of HP series, we are a gone case. Must pick up HP soon!

Time flew fast as the The Most Sexiest Woman Alive cover story in Esquire kept me buuuuuuuuussssssssy! Read the online version at www.esquire.com. Very unusual treatment for a cover story of even this nature! Honestly, I did not like it a wee bit. But, it is Esquire. How can you ignore?

Sharp 4 a.m. Bahrain local time, I stepped out again. It was windy. Bit cold. Cabbies chased me to know whether I need a ride. I did not. They moved away. There was a lot of activity on the roads. Bulldozers, excavators were moving towards I don’t know where. Maybe for some construction site. Lot of Indian, Pakistani labourers in company clothes were rushing with a plastic bag containing food, I presume. Nearby Bus Terminal wore a festive atmosphere with lot of talk, tobacco smoke, chattering of Hindi, Malayalam, Telugu etc.

Buses were slowly creeping in to disgorge people from various parts. Roadside restaurants were serving piping hot black tea in tall glass containers. Many Bahrainis were engaged in eating huge Pakistani type rotis with side dishes and a lot of green salad. Even some Indians and Paksitanis were having their breakfast at 4 a.m.! Maybe they may not get time before noon to eat.

Uniformed Manama Municipality workers have begun their day sweeping roads filled up with muck and throwaways. Shops owned by Keralities were opened already and rushing workers were picking up some cookies and beedis/cigarettes.

As I moved into the King Faisal Causeway, the main thoroughfare connecting Bahrain with Saudi Arabia, I could not miss the inky blue sky. The red lights positioned strategically at various levels on the huge twin towers of Bahrain Financial Harbour were winking at some unknown angels. The traffic on the road was incessant. Who are they and where are they going, I could not fathom. A few young Indians were jogging merrily in propah branded attire.

I quietly moved into a Bahraini type roadside restaurant for a cup of tea. Of course, it was manned by whoelse but our own kith and kin from Kerala! It was packed at 5.15 a.m. The elderly Karimbhai – from Talacherry – took my order and returned in double quick time. His Arabic was fluent and Hindi was no less. Could not help engage him a bit of conversation. He came 30 years ago and visits home every two years. ‘Life has been nice,’ he replies in between serving customers. ‘Are you from Kerala?’ he asks earnestly. I say, ‘no’ but from Chennai. Immediately he responds with his recollection of Madras which he has visited 40 years ago!

By the time I return to room, the wristwatch shows 5.30 a.m. I could not help compare my early mornings in Muscat. There again I wake up at 4 a.m. and go for a walk upto Wadi Kabir round about and return to Star Cinema, take a u-turn to come back to Ruwi guest house. All in a span of 75 minutes. This includes a stopover at Oman Oil petrol pump for a hot cuppa or the Shell Select on the same stretch.

There is very little life or activity on Muscat roads at 4 a.m. Barring a few heavy duty trucks and a sporadic cars moving at fast clip, I don’t witness human activity. Occasionally, see kids play football on the open grounds before Star cinema.

Bahrain is different, no doubt. More life in early mornings. Like Delhi.

Cheers

Sohar Port expansion

Port Of Rotterdam eyes 170 mln euro Oman expansion
Fri Nov 2, 2007 12:09pm GMT

By Lucy Hornby

TIANJIN, China, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Rotterdam port is planning to invest in a 170 million euro ($246 million) expansion of a port in Oman, even as it enlarges its own facilities to accommodate increased traffic from Asia, its president said.

China's emergence as the world's third largest trading nation has pushed freight rates to record highs and strained port capacity from Europe to the Americas to Australia.

Port of Rotterdam, in the midst of a massive expansion, also is looking at investment opportunities in India.

"As the Port of Rotterdam, we want to invest abroad," Hans Smits told Reuters in an interview in the Chinese port of Tianjin on Thursday.

Chinese demand has helped push crude oil prices to record highs, leading to booming demand for steel and consumer goods in the Middle East and supporting new port construction there.

Port of Rotterdam, already in a joint venture with Oman's government to run the Sohar port, will invest directly with its partner in a planned expansion that would accommodate a $1 billion iron ore pellet project proposed by Brazilian miner Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, or CVRD (RIO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)(VALE5.SA: Quote, Profile, Research).

A final commitment awaits CVRD's final decision on the 7.5 million tonne pellet plant, expected by the end of this year.

Port of Rotterdam and its partner would contibute "tens of millions" of euros, with the rest funded through bank financing.

In India, it is looking at possible investments in a greenfield or an existing port, Smits said, but declined to comment further.

"We'll stick to our business and to our core competence. We are not going to invest in terminals themselves; we are sticking to the 'landlord model.' We are very good in the master plan, in designing and operating ports, but we are not a Dubai World".


EUROPE PORTS GROWING

"Within seven to nine years, container capacity in a number of European ports needs to be doubled, it's as simple as that," Smits said, adding volume is growing by 10-15 percent a year, driven by trade with China, Japan and Korea.

Rotterdam, a major transit point for oil, coal, grains and other commodities, handles about 35 percent of European port traffic by tonnage.

New procedures and a new sense of urgency would allow European governments to speed up decisions on infrastructure investment, Smits said, although he said quicker approvals did not mean ports would no longer be held responsible for environmental mitigation.

The port will buy "natural areas" in Rotterdam and along the coast to offset areas impacted by its land reclamation project, which begins next year, he said.

The Dutch government has purchased 500 million euros of shares in the Port of Rotterdam to help underwrite its expansion.

Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium are all speeding up construction of public infrastructure, while barge traffic is growing along the Seine as capacity increases at the port of le Havre, port executives said this week.

"There is an awareness growing in Europe to speed up decision making, to invest more in infrastructure, to facilitate the growth in the transport of goods to Europe and also the exporting of goods," Smits said.

Rotterdam's 2.8 billion euro expansion will enable between 6 billion and 10 billion euros of investment by other companies, including a 1 billion euro oil refinery upgrade by Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research).

That also includes biofuel plants capable of producing 2 million tonnes a year of biodiesel and bioethanol and new power plants fuelled by biomass and coal.

8.3% GDP growth @ half time

Natural gas fires Oman economic growth
Reuters on Sunday, 04 November 2007

Oman's economy grew 8.3% at current prices in the first half of the year driven by expansion in natural gas production and non-oil sectors such as industry, the official Oman News Agency (ONA) said.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the six months ended June 30 was 7.266 billion rials ($18.88 billion), up 8.3% from the same period a year earlier, ONA reported on Friday, without giving a comparative figure.

The value of crude oil and gas output rose 0.2% to 3.41 billion rials in the first half, the agency said, citing official statistics.

Growth in the first half was mainly due to a 30.1% gain in the contribution of natural gas to 262.3 million rials, ONA said. That compared with 200.4 million rials in the first half of 2006.

The value of non-oil sector output rose 16.9% in the six months to 3.98 billion rials, while the value of industrial sector output grew 17.9% to 971.3 million rials, ONA added.

Analysts' forecasts were for Oman's economy to grow 38.6% in nominal terms and 5.9% in real terms in 2007, according to a Reuters poll conducted last December.

Dollar Peg - Saudi falls in line - 3

Gulf States and the Dollar Link
Rate Cuts to Match Fed Could Increase Inflation;
Betting on a 'Depegging'

By ANDREW CRITCHLOW
November 2, 2007; Page A2

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Oil-rich Arab sheikdoms, risking new inflation pressure, followed the U.S. Federal Reserve's lead by lowering official interest rates to keep their currencies aligned with the dollar.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain followed the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point.

PEGGED DOWN

• The News: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain followed the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point.
• Background: The Gulf states' exchange rates are pegged to the dollar, whose decline has diluted the benefit of record oil prices.
• What's Next: Rampant inflation in the region has increased pressure, particularly on the U.A.E., to sever ties with the dollar, which could further add to the dollar's woes.Because their exchange rates are pegged to the dollar in fixed trading ranges, monetary policy in the Persian Gulf states must mirror U.S. moves to avoid pressures from capital drifting to the currency with the most favorable interest rates.

The moves came despite concerns over rampant inflation in the region, which suggest central banks should be raising, instead of lowering, rates. Bankers said the policy conflict is building pressure on the Gulf states to unbind from the dollar.

Nowhere in the Middle East are the strains more acute than in the U.A.E., where investors are betting on a "depegging" of the dirham as domestic inflation pressures increase.

"Speculators are definitely bidding on a depegging, and that's why they're increasing their dirham deposits," Henry Azzam, Middle East chief executive at Deutsche Bank AG, told Zawya Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

Attracting that money are chances of a quick profit once the peg snaps. Deposits held in the emirates' banks have exceeded one trillion dirhams ($272.3 billion) for the first time, more than is deposited in the region's largest economy, Saudi Arabia, latest central-bank figures show.

"The probability of depegging has increased," said Kamran Butt, Dubai-based chief economist at Credit Suisse Group. "The market consensus is for the U.A.E. to depeg." A decision by the U.A.E. to sever ties with the dollar could alienate the U.S. and add to the dollar's woes at a time of economic uncertainty and record oil prices.

The dollar, which fell to all-time lows against the euro and 26-year lows against sterling in the aftermath of Wednesday's rate cut, was at $1.4437 against the euro, from $1.4486 Wednesday. The U.K. pound was at $2.0787, from $2.0793 Wednesday.

The dollar's slump has pushed up the cost of imports to the Gulf, fueling inflation. The dollar's decline has watered down the benefit of record oil prices in the region that is expected to accrue a surplus in excess of $500 billion this year, according to Saudi lender Samba Financial Group.

Kuwait, the region's third-largest Arab oil producer, was the first to break ranks with its Gulf peers in May when it shunned its peg with the dollar by allowing the dinar to float against a basket of currencies and in a range against the dollar. It retains a loose dollar peg and joined other states in cutting rates yesterday.

The seven emirates are Abu Dhabi, 'Ajman, Al Fujayrah, Sharjah, Dubai, Ra's al Khaymah and Quwayn.

With inflation expected to exceed 10% for a second consecutive year in the U.A.E., the emirates' ruling sheiks face the region's greatest fiscal policy challenge since the U.K. devalued sterling in 1967, forcing Gulf states to turn to the dollar as a benchmark.

When the emirates created the dirham in 1973 they linked it effectively to the dollar. Now bankers such as Deutsche's Mr. Azzam are unsure whether the U.A.E. is ready for another such change. "I don't think a depeg will happen because that's a regional decision and it has served the U.A.E. so far," he said.

--Mirna Sleiman and Oliver Klaus contributed to this article.

Oman - Gas exports

Oman ramps up S.Korea gas exports
Reuters, 30 October 2007

South Korea has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Oman to receive an additional two million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually from next year, Seoul's energy ministry said on Tuesday.

The additional LNG represents a 49% increase from the 4.06 million tonnes a year South Korea currently imports from Oman.

Oman has also agreed to provide spot LNG in the winter to South Korea, which experiences LNG shortages from December to March due to high heating use, the ministry said.

"The deal will secure South Korea with a stable LNG supply, even in high-demand winter season," the ministry said in a statement.

With the additional volume, Oman will become South Korea's fourth-largest LNG supplier, following Qatar, Indonesia and Malaysia.

In 2006, South Korea imported 24.6 million tonnes of LNG, of which 27% came from Qatar.

GCC Single Currency - What's New?

What's the fate of GCC Single Currency?

Read the latest from the Telegraph, UK.

Gulf states stall on the way to currency union31/10/2007

Plans to unite six Middle East economies in a single monetary system have run off the road but may yet be kick-started, writes Edmund Conway

It was intended to be the crowning glory of the 21st-century Gulf economy. With the region having proved that it can create jaw-droppingly impressive cities, thriving capital markets and sophisticated business communities, the last piece in the Gulf's financial jigsaw puzzle was to be a single currency.

Six years ago, the members of the Gulf Co-operation Council – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – agreed to merge their currencies by 2010.

With the deadline fast approaching, the countries should by now have been in the final stages of drawing up the scheme. Instead, the entire project is in jeopardy, amid political wrangling between the fiercely competitive Gulf states.

Earlier this year, Oman pulled out of the plan. In another blow, Kuwait then abandoned its four-year-old dollar peg, going it alone with a peg on a basket of international currencies.

At the end of a meeting of Gulf Co-operation Council finance ministers and central bankers in Jeddah over the weekend, Hamad al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, the country's central bank, confirmed what has become increasingly obvious: that the entire project will have to be postponed. Some fear it may be shelved permanently, though Mr al-Sayari insisted: "The situation will be assessed in order to set a new date for monetary union."

The united Gulf currency's fate is likely to be decided at a big summit in Qatar in December. The issue is vital, for the region, for currency markets worldwide and for the US dollar in particular. Leaps in the oil price mean the Middle East is once again one of the world's richest regions, pumping money into the City and Wall Street. Significantly, most of this cash has, originally, been dollar-denominated, since the Gulf states receive their oil revenues in dollars, and their own currencies have traditionally been pegged to the greenback.

If the Gulf states were to turn their back on the dollar and float a single currency, in so doing stopping their bulk purchases of American Treasury bonds, the result could be an even sharper fall in the dollar. However, this scenario now looks less likely, because of the ingrained differences between the Gulf states.

One of the main problems has been the dramatic differences between each state's oil and gas reserves. For instance, Qatar and Saudi each have massive gas and oil revenues, while UAE member Dubai and Oman have very little. Ironically, Oman had stood to gain the most from the union for precisely this reason, yet its central bank governor, Homud al-Zidjali, said he was withdrawing because "we do not want to restrict our monetary and fiscal policies at present".

The challenge for the Gulf Co-operation Council, Michael Klawitter of Dresdner Kleinwort says, is that its member states are starting from even further behind than the European Union did when the euro was introduced, lacking many of the base regulations.

"This takes lots of time," he says. "You have to have so many new regulations and financial systems – and let's not forget there are huge differences within the financial services system in the Middle East."

Nevertheless, the dollar's recent weakness has reinforced the arguments in favour of monetary union. The International Monetary Fund warned dollar-pegged Gulf economies yesterday that they face significant increases in inflation at the same time as the US cuts interest rates. To keep their pegs working, the Gulf countries usually have to cut rates in step with the US. However, Saudi policymakers opted not to mirror the Fed's half-percentage point cut earlier this year.

There is suspicion that, as the dollar falls further, the Gulf Co-operation Council states may consider moving to a joint basket, and then reinstating their single currency plans. The next clues to their intentions will be their interest rate moves if the Fed, as expected, cuts interest rates again this week.

Dollar Peg - Saudi falls in line - 2

Khaleej Times Online
Gulf moves to deter revaluation bets after Fed cut
(Reuters)

1 November 2007

DUBAI - Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil producers followed a US interest rate cut by lowering some borrowing costs on Thursday to try to relieve pressure on their dollar-pegged currencies without stoking inflation at home.


The Saudi riyal SAR led a retreat among Gulf currencies after the rate cuts made bets on exchange-rate appreciation less attractive, and signals from the Federal Reserve diminished expectations for cheaper money in the United States.

“If this does prove to be the end of the loosening cycle, that would be welcome by Gulf policymakers,” said Simon Williams, HSBC’s regional economist in Dubai.

“But rates are still low in nominal and real terms at a time when they should have been rising,” he said.

Most of the central bank moves reflected concerns about inflation, which is at decade highs across the Gulf, where economies are booming on a quadrupling of oil prices since 2002.

Of the five central banks that changed rates on Thursday, only Bahrain matched Wednesday’s quarter percentage point Fed easing with its benchmark rate.

Kuwait kept its benchmark steady as did Saudi Arabia, which also tightened bank lending curbs. Qatar left its main policy signal unchanged and the United Arab Emirates reduced rates by as much as 20 basis points.

“They are doing the minimum that they have to because of the pegs,” said Marios Maratheftis, Standard Chartered’s regional head of research.

Most Gulf currencies eased and the Saudi riyal SAR hit a three-week low after the central bank of the world’s largest oil exporter cut its reverse repo rate by 25 basis points.

The riyal had hit a 21-year high after the Saudi central bank opted to ignore the last Fed cut on Sept. 18, firing market speculation of an imminent revaluation.

Since then the International Monetary Fund has urged Saudi Arabia and its neighbours make sure that interest rates were consistent with their policy of shackling currencies to the tumbling dollar in the run up to monetary union.

Bids on the riyal fell as low as 3.7430 per dollar, its weakest since Oct. 8, after the Saudi rate cut. The central bank has officially kept the riyal stable at 3.75 to the dollar since June 1986, although on the market its latest 21-year peak was 3.7290 on Oct. 10.

The Saudi central bank also raised the reserve requirement for banks to 9 percent from 7 percent, to prevent lower borrowing costs from increasing lending and fuelling inflation that hit a seven-year high of 4.4 percent in August.

“This means that banks will have to keep more money in their vaults...,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB bank, one of the bankers who had seen the central bank statement.

Dilemma

Saudi Arabia’s dilemma mirrors that of central banks around the region, which could soon be under less pressure to choose between deterring currency appreciation and fighting inflation.

A Reuters poll of primary dealers on Wednesday showed most expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold or end the easing cycle with another 25 basis point cut.

“If there are no more Fed cuts from here on this does take some of the pressure off these central banks,” said Caroline Grady, regional economist at Deutsche Bank.

Gulf central banks usually track US monetary policy to maintain the relative yield on their currencies. The Fed cut on Wednesday takes the gap between returns investors get on the Saudi riyal and dollar to its widest since 2002.

The Saudi central bank left its benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 5.5 percent with the US federal funds rate at 4.5 percent. The average rate spread over the past 15 years has been 36 basis points, according to Deutsche Bank.

The Sept. 18 Fed cut divided the six states preparing for monetary union as early as 2010. Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia ignored that move. Qatar and the UAE cut some rates with Kuwait, which has tracked the dinar against a currency basket since May.

Oman’s central bank is closed on Thursdays. Qatar cut its the deposit facility rate and Kuwait its repurchase rate by 25 basis points each. Bahrain reduced all borrowing costs by a quarter point. The UAE, which has no benchmark, cut certificate of deposit rates by 20 basis points.

Dollar Peg - Saudi falls in line

Last September, Saudi Arabia cocked a snook at US Fed when it slashed its interest by 50 bps.

This time, when Fed further slashed by 25 bps, Saudi fell in line.

See Financial Times reportage below:

Gulf move quells dollar-peg talk
By Simeon Kerr in Dubai and Roula Khalaf in London

Published: November 2 2007 02:43

Gulf states on Thursday cut some interest rates in a move that generally tracked the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points cut, undermining speculation that these oil-exporting economies may drop their dollar pegs.

Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, reduced one of its interest rates by 25 basis points while raising banks’ reserve requirements to limit the growth of monetary supply in a bid to tame rising inflation. Five of the six Gulf Co-operation Council members peg their currencies to the US dollar and therefore usually follow US interest rate decisions. Kuwait in May abandoned its dollar peg, citing rising levels of inflation imported by the weakening dollar.

The economic boom in the oil-rich Gulf, where oil prices have quadrupled during the past five years, should dictate higher interest rates, rather than the looser monetary policy being dished out to a US economy struggling to come to terms with the summer’s subprime mortgage crisis. “Increasing the Saudi reserve requirements is a way of tightening the monetary environment without raising rates,” said Simon Williams, an economist with HSBC in Dubai.

Speaking to reporters in London, Prince Saud al-Faisal, foreign minister, quelled speculation of any Saudi intention to drop the dollar peg. “Why would one do that?” he said, adding only half-jokingly that there “aren’t enough euros” around.

In September, Saudi Arabia ignored the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis-point cut, triggering speculative flows into the riyal that wrongly bet on a Saudi revaluation.

Saudi Arabia on Thursday also gave plans for a single Gulf currency a much-needed boost, predicting the majority of states in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Riyadh, would join by the agreed date of 2010.

“Perhaps not collectively, but the majority will achieve it,” Prince Saud said, referring to the single currency.

The foreign minister’s comments come ahead of next month’s GCC heads of state meeting in Qatar that will provide some measure of progress towards the troubled single currency project, even though a final decision on the planned deadline has been pushed back until next year. Oman has publicly opted out, saying it will not be able to harmonise its economy in time to meet the 2010 deadline for monetary union.

Saudi Arabia’s central bank governor has said the target is “difficult”, while the UAE central bank governor has suggested that the six-member block may push back the stated deadline by five years. “As their economies are fairly harmonised, monetary union could still happen with the right amount of political will, but the progress so far indicates it won’t happen on time,” said Monica Malik, a Dubai-based economist with regional investment bank EFG-Hermes.

What about others?